Almost every Tuesday is primary day somewhere, it seems, and today Wyoming and Washington state get the honors.

The most hotly contested primary race of interest is the Republican race in Wyoming's at-large U.S. House district, where Republican Barbara Cubin's retirement has created an exciting open-seat race.

Orange to Blue Democrat Gary Trauner is the Democratic nominee, while four Republicans (two of them serious candidates) squared off for the nomination.

The GOP nomination, contested primarily between wealthy rancher Mark Gordon and Wyoming State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, has apparently won by 9 points, 46% to 37%.

That's just fine for Trauner, as he won't have to face Gordon's self-funding capabilities ($1 million of his $1.2 million raised was out of pocket), nor his favorable profile (seems to be a good fit for Wyoming, as a rancher).

Lummis has won statewide office before, it is true. But she also has a longstanding feud with popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal, which may spur the Governor to campaign harder for Trauner this cycle than he did during Trauner's narrow 2006 loss.

As mcjoan noted earlier, this was an exceptionally ugly primary, and there may well be bad blood between Lummis' supporters, and Gordon's, for several months. Also, both GOP candidates have dumped their financial resources into this race, while Trauner, running unopposed, sits on a nice nest egg of $660,000.

Meanwhile, it is also primary day in Washington State, and the inaugural primary for their "top two" system. This is somewhat similar to Louisiana's old "jungle primary" in that the top two finishers advance to the general, regardless of party. However, unlike the jungle primary, you can't win the whole thing by getting 50% on election day; it is a real primary election.

There are no real competitive primaries at the federal level in Washington state this time out, so this is essentially a beauty contest for general-election candidates. Turnout is expected to be high for a primary in Washington, due to their mail-in ballot system. As such, some were touting the Washington primaries as a preview of the general election matchups between Governor Christine Gregoire and her Republican opponent Dino Rossi, and between Republican Rep. Dave Reichert and his opponent, Orange to Blue Democrat Darcy Burner.

If they are previews of the general, however, we haven't learned anything we didn't know before; both election are going to be very close.

Gregoire is currently edging Rossi, 48% to 46%. She will likely finish the night with a slim lead as well.

Meanwhile, Burner trails Reichert, 47% to 44%, as of last note. However, the total Democratic vote in WA-08 currently exceeds 50%, which is good news.

Given the vagaries of the mail-in system, it's unlikely that results will be official until tomorrow or even Thursday. So good night to you all; we will post the percentages for WA-Gov and WA-08 as soon as we can.

On the web:
Darcy Burner for Congress
Gary Trauner for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

"We cannot forever hide the truth about ourselves, from ourselves."
-Fictional Maverick John McCain

Sooner or later, the day comes when you can't hide from the things that you've done anymore.
-Fictional Character William Adama, Battlestar Galctica

I'm through with it.  I'm sick of listening to, as one diarist referred to it, The Legend of John McCain.  And because I am sick of it, because forcing myself to watch his zombie base mindlessly applaud his pandering, talking points performance at Rick Warren's bloated, ego driven Christianity for Happy and Bigoted Capitalists Forum unsettled me for the last three days, I am going to rant and attack.

All throughout the end of the primary season when it looked like Obama was headed
into  battle with John McCain, he would magnanimously say that "John McCain is a
genuine American hero, and I respect his service but..."  The first time was OK, but he says it every time he makes a campaign appearance.  He must stop this now!

Dear Kossacks,

The politics season is truly upon us when we begin hearing that Republicans are push-polling.  Remember that push-polls are different that testing messages.  Message tests tend to be long polls, sometimes with nasty questions.  They are designed to judge your reactions.  Push polls are short and obviously far from factual.  They are intended to push people buttons on wedge issues or push vile rumors into circulation.

Tonight, we have the first evidence that the Norm Coleman campaign has started push polling ...

It should be noted from the outset that this diary is not moralistic--it is not cut from a we're-above-this-type-of-ugly-campaigning cloth. But this diary also is not a case for a new, Democratic Swiftboating campaign to be waged against McCain.

Instead, what follows is a brief exploration of how, in both substance and form, the "McCain wasn't tortured" line mirrors almost perfectly the attacks waged against Kerry in 2004.

Whether it's an attack strategy that WE should use is up to the masses, or Obama, or both. (Or some rogue 527.)

McCain says because he survived 5½ years of brutal torture, while a prisoner of the communist Vietnamese, he is better qualified to be president of the United States than any other candidate. McCain claims his POW sufferings included three years in solitary confinement where he was tortured so badly that he "broke," causing him to attempt suicide.

The video and story below chronicle a recent Sunday afternoon in Venice, California, when 22 children, ages 5-12, gathered to sing original songs in the belief that their singing would lift up our communities and the Obama campaign for the coming election.  This was a grassroots deal from the start, but thanks to unexpected assistance from parents and then top film production folks in LA, the performances are captured for all time.
 
The video was just finished and uploaded to YouTube earlier this evening, and as one of the video’s two grips-for-the-day, I’m especially proud to present it to Daily Kos first:

Here’s the Sing for Change performance:

http://www.youtube.com/...

As we stand on the eve of the real election season, two new national polls today (LA Times/Bloomberg and Q-poll) along with the daily trackers (Rasmussen and Gallup) continue to show a tight race with a small Obama lead.

LA Times/Bloomberg
Registered Voters (June) MoE +/- 3
Obama  45 (49)
McCain 43 (37)

This poll shows the most movement, with the last polling in June.

The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that Obama, the first black major-party nominee, may have defused the issue of race, particularly among independents who will form a crucial voting bloc in the November election...

The deteriorating economy and rising energy costs "have been major issues for so long and voters blame the Republicans and George Bush for the problems," says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. Still, Pinkus says, McCain has benefited from voters' concerns about Obama's experience and ability to handle an international crisis.

Note that when this poll had Obama up by 12 in June, it was dismissed as an outlier along with the equally volatile Newsweek poll. Today's numbers are consistent what other polls show (see rest of post.) According to the news article, Obama still benefits from increased D enthusiasm. The LA Times version speculates on McCain negative attacks because Obama's fav/unfav now resemble McCain's. OTOH,

The poll found that McCain, long an unpopular figure among conservatives, has had more success than Obama in rallying his party's base. Nine out of 10 Republicans favor McCain, while just under 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama.

But independents, who could wind up deciding the election, favor Obama, 47% to 36%.

And Obama's backers are more enthusiastic than McCain's, suggesting that the Democrat holds greater potential for a strong turnout of supporters. The poll found that 78% of Obama's supporters were enthusiastic about his candidacy; 61% of McCain's backers felt that way.

Bottom line is that, like in other polls, the GOP base has consolidated while the Dem base, while more enthusiastic, has not. Obama has room to move up, but it'll take work to get there. And then there are the conventions, which, based on these numbers, come at the right time for Obama. How much upward room there is for McCain remains unclear, based on what is a poor showing amongst indies (Obama favored by 11) and the stated 9 in 10 GOP voters picking McCain. In all the polls, base support is a major difference between the candidates, though I haven't seen the cross-tabs or the exact figures (or the party ID numbers, for that matter.) But if indies favor Obama by that much, he's in decent shape.

Quinnipiac
Likely Voters  (July) MoE +/- 2.5

Obama   47  (50)
McCain  42  (37)

Notes:

In the presidential matchup, McCain leads 46 - 41 percent among men, up from 47 - 44 percent July 15, and 48 - 40 percent among white voters, compared to 49 - 42 percent last month. He also leads 65 - 25 percent among white Evangelical Christians, up from 61 - 29 percent.

But Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among women, compared to 55 - 36 percent last month, and 94 - 4 percent among black voters. The Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, compared to 63 - 31 percent last month. Obama's strength among voters 35 to 54 is up from 48 - 44 percent to 49 - 41 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among voters over 55, compared to a 45 - 44 percent split July 15.

Independent voters shift from a 44 - 44 percent split to a 45 - 39 percent Democratic tilt.

"The poll underlines Sen. Barack Obama's strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: He leads overall and he's strong with women, even stronger among young folks and astronomically strong with blacks. Weaknesses: Sen. John McCain beats him among white voters, men, older folks and white Catholics," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Also, theGallup tracker has Obama 45 and McCain 44 (RV) while Rasmussen has Obama 47, McCain 45 (LV, with leaners).

With the VP choices and conventions about to start, the polls reflect the state of the race as of now. As of now, Obama as a tightening but small lead. And as of now is about to change. Maybe McCain will figure out how to get above 44% (or, for a change, lead.) Maybe Obama will finish consolidating wavering Dems and shore up his standing with the senior set.

We shall see in the next two weeks. Since polling over Labor Day is tough, the first helpful polls will be right after that. But if you want to look at historical VP bounces while you await the VP choices, try this recent post by Mark Blumenthal.

Just a quick thought, based on what's now old news but McCain did bring it up again Saturday - the idea that he "knows how to win wars".

Here's what I'd ask McCain if he ever held a town hall on Long Island (HAH!) and I managed to get hold of the mike:

Sen. McCain, you graduated in the bottom 1 percentile of your class at Annapolis. In training, you crashed 3 planes. You never held a command position in the Navy, and your only combat experience was in a war we lost. How do you know how to win wars, and what's the secret?

In followup, I'd also like ask if he'd shared with the current President his ideas on how to catch Bin Laden, and (A) if not, why not, (B) why he was unable to persuade Bush to execute his masterplan, or (C) why the plan failed.

Here's another "This Date in History" "gem"; on this date in 1909, the first auto race was held at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Ever since then, my "beloved" state has been known for corn & racing. That's a hell of a legacy, ain't it?!

If you're like me these days, you could use a laugh (or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or infinity). On NPR today, Terri Gross replayed an interview she did with Mort Sahl in 2003; I laughed long, and I laughed hard (yea...yea...yea...get your minds out of the gutter; there's only room for me). Her shows are available as PodCasts, so if you have the means & the access to a nearby intertubes machine, I highly recommend you download it.

So, is it Election Day yet?!

Let's count down with our Countdown gang!

The south is known as a Republican stronghold in the last few years after long Democratic traditions, and Democrats are once again standing up to fight for the South. NC and VA are springing up to be swing-states, and Democrats are fighting all over the South for House and Senate seats.

Welcome back for more speculation! Today continues the new final series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with a new top 14 list of names I considered most likely to be named Obama's v.p. running mate, and we'll eliminate the bottom vote-getter each day until there is a winner, or a real-life winner is named by Obama. Starting today, candidates will be listed in order of votes from the previous poll, from most to least, so we'll have some idea of preference in this thread's voting should Obama decide before there is a series winner. Sens. Evan Bayh (IN) and Jack Reed (RI) were eliminated in the previous round.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to state their name, unless you have further comments. I'm happy to hear all ideas in this open thread, and I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

We must use all power available to take out this terrible piece of propaganda from YouTube.

http://www.youtube.com/...

Only fools will believe Barrack Obama has no respect for life. What about John McCain killing innocent women and children from 15,000 feet in Vietnam? How many innocent people is he responsible for killing? McCain is a murderer and war criminal.

Source

The justification for Public Law 93-531 passed by Congress in 1974 was that the Navajo-Hopi land dispute is so serious that 10,000 Navajos near Big Mountain, Arizona, must be relocated, forcibly if necessary. It would be the largest forced relocation of U.S. citizens since the relocation of Japanese-Americans during World War II.

But tradition-minded Navajo and Hopi claim there never was a land dispute. They say the dispute was invented to get the Navajos and their livestock off mineral-rich land in the Hopi reservation so it could be developed by mining companies such as Peabody Coal and Kerr-McGee.

John McNicotine is now for the tobacco lobby after years of working against it.  He not only opposes the cigarette taxes he used to support but also opposes FDA regulation of the tobacco industry after years of supporting it.  McNicotine is an ex-smoker and should understand just how addictive nicotine is, and he even acknowledged the exceptionally high death rate for tobacco users when he joked that cigarette exports to Iran were part of his plot to kill Iranian citizens.  For McNicotine to cave in to the tobacco cartel is the ultimate flip-flop:
http://www.boston.com/...

Why has McNicotine caved in to the interests of the tobacco drug cartel?  It couldn't possibly have anything to do with hiring tobacco lobbyist Charlie Black as his senior adviser.  Move along folks.  There's nothing to see here:
http://firedoglake.com/...

Now let's use the traditional Rethug "moral values" and "sanctity of life" frames against McNicotine!  There's more in the flip.

If you had told me a month ago - hell, probably a day ago - that I would suggest what I am about to suggest, I would have told you that you were crazy, but here it is anyway:

I think Hillary Clinton would be a solid running mate.

I can hear the complaints already.  Hillary is the DLC wing, she is everything we've worked to defeat, she is the personification of the middle-of-the-road bumbling that helped bury this party for 40 years, she goes against the Change theme, etc., etc.

But hear me out - or read me out, anyway.

Yes - I'm calling out Pastor Rick Warren.  Because last night, on Larry King Live, Warren dismissed as "bogus"  concerns about McCain having prior knowledge of specific questions.  He asserted that there's no chance that McCain could have gotten questions during his drive to the forum because "the  Secret Service would have reported it". Why are Warren and many in the media assiduously ignoring very clear evidence that John McCain knew at least one of the questions ahead of time?  Do they expect us to believe them or should we believe our lying eyes?

h/t to jbalazs for the excellent video

Let's make it viral.

[transcripts plus video from Warren's appearance on Larry King Live after the jump]

Crusty, curmudgeonly commentator Jack Cafferty of CNN has tossed a spanner in the works of the MSM. In his most recent commentary piece, McCain's many shortcomings as commander in chief are laid bare:

http://www.cnn.com/...